The crisis in the Lebanon is already a month old since Israeli forces entered south Lebanon in search of two of its soldiers abducted by Hizbullah, the Shite-based and Iran-backed militia, following an Israeli corporal who was initially taken as prisoner in late May.
A flurry of meetings in the capitals of the Middle East, Europe, the United Nations, North America and even Asia took place to find a “ceasefire”, “cessation of hostilities” and other diplomatic formulations that usually are banded around, each hoping against hope that “international concern” and “pressure of public opinion” will bring some degree of “stability” to what is essentially a tense, complex and difficult military situation on the ground.
In late July, the European Union floated the idea of a “multinational force” consisting of France, Italy, Norway and Turkey which would constitute “a robust force” to bring about some kind of military stand-off . Heads of states and of governments in Arab capitals differ in their approaches to seek a solution, depending on the respective Arab government’s strategic attitudes toward Israel, Lebanon and Iran. The UN in New York issued its predictable litany of diplomatic statements, underlining its helplessness in having credible leverage over any of the protagonists. The US Secretary of State rather awkwardly wanted “a ceasefire in days, not weeks” but found her words undercut by intensified shelling and missile attacks by both Israel and Hizbullah. Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, the Organization of Islamic Conference called on the UN Security Council to be more assertive in condemning Israeli aggression.
In fact, diplomatic formulations, whatever the motives initiated by its proponents, have to yield to the military balance on the ground. The Israelis and Hizbullah forces face no immediate real economic sanctions or military threats that hamper their day to day tactical battles. Hizbullah surprised the Israeli defense force for its ability to move among the Lebanese population, dispersing more than 15000 Katyusha and Iranian as well as home grown rockets along Lebanon’s border with Israel. Israel had to resort to its air force to bomb and pound suspected Hizbullah outposts and bunkers, sustaining diplomatic condemnation from across the world, including many capitals in Western Europe.
From the outset, there has been general agreement that both the Israeli defense force and the Hizbullah have acted beyond the control of their respective backers. The intense hatred arising from anger, fear, deep vengeance and radical rhetoric, combined with personal as well as collective sufferings on both sides have led the military conflict run unchecked. Hizbullah found new methods of running a total war effort, confounding the Israeli military with their ingenuity and skill in deploying rockets and missiles from wide and dispersed areas. It can ignore calls for a cessation of hostilities so long as its human and military resources remain intact. The Israeli defense force, under increased international pressure to agree to a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities, can only do so if it feels that the Hizbullah forces are dismantled, if not destroyed, entirely. Neither side can afford to be seen as having to step down from its absolute minimum military threshold. So longs the war of military attrition continues, an agreed diplomatic formulation will have to wait for the appropriate balance of military forces.
I don’t see this conflict purely as a result of tension between Lebanon/Hezbollah and Israel, but rather, the two Greater Forces are using the smaller ones to fight each other for whatever objectives that they wanted to achieve.
In my opinion, U.S. is using Israel as an extension of its arm to fight against Iran (Hezbollah gets its military armament from Iran).
All in all, this war can only be stopped when U.S. agrees to give Iran some space to breathe.
Right now, I hear some voices to ban american/ european product such as McD, carrefour, starbucks an others. I am not agree with them, because there are some indonesian people who work at those company. I think we should try to find another ways to push america/ israel such as not to use USD for international trade.
Suggesting to “wait for the appropriate balance of military force” before “an agreed diplomatic formulation” could be acheived is, in my opinion, only making the matter worse, especially for the civilians trapped between the conflicting parties.
Should we ignore their desperate plight for peace and security? Or should we force the fonflicting parties to end the hostility for the sake of humanity?
In this current conflict in the Mideast, I see the US govt as an important player that should mediate or take immedate decision in ending the crisis. As the sole superpower in this rather unilateral world, and in its apparent support to the Israeli military agression, I have little doubt that once the US tell Israel to stop all its milatary attacks, ultimately Hizbullah would also stop launching its rockets to Israel.
No diplomatic solution could be achieved by the international community without any active role from the US govt, even when “an appropriate balance of military force” is achieved. And unless there is no change of US policy in the Mideast, a sustainable resolution to the crisis would remain elusive and more and more civilians would only become the victims in a prolonged crisis.
Dear Sir,
What is the Indonesian government reaction due to israeli aggression? What is your own oppinion? Don’t you think your ideas on this blog need to be boosted to public?
its nice to have a minister speaks free trough personal blogs. You give me hope to the future of this country.
About Lebanon, Its such a clear view that you presented here. Some bias opinion, mixture with religious prejudice has dominated the judgement to see this crisis. and you come with such objective-academic views. I like it.
However, does this view solve the problem ? I think what Israel does to Lebanon, with its indicriminates attack, emphasizes the trend of unilateralism that occured since US attacked Iraq, anyway, US goverment policy since 9/11. A pre-emptive attack in the name of their people . and this put United Nations in question.
I think we need a radical move to end this trend. such as dissolve the United Nations, or ….maybe the most radical step, launching nuclear bomb to washington and pentagon? (why not? they used it to Hiroshima and Nagasaki, its just karma, right?) he he..im not Osamma follower, no..i dont have energy to hate a religion, a nation, any nations. however, this trend must be stop, or world war 3 is waiting.
Dear Minister,
It must be tough to be in the government position at this point. The history of the conflict itself is much more complex than what people been informed from news or movie. I personally don’t stand behind anybody. But I clearly understand that everyday’s shooting and bombing is like the second hell, which have got to stop.
The way I view it, Israel got surprised by the ability of Hizbollah and will lose pride if they back off. Hizbollah has always been prepared for such situation. It’s really the battle of the two highest leaders ego since long war will win nothing. I feel sorry for those who got stuck in between the two leaders’ ego.
Should we decide to send troops, please win the heart of everyone in the first hand. When things are successfull, TNI can gain good amount of points on fame in the world. Don’t forget to ask ‘tambahan anggaran’ (APBN) next year too if possible. I believe everyone will agree if they make proud of us. If failed, then prepare for the worst. There’s too an ‘equilibrium’ in this complex world that has to be carefully kept.
Regarding the jihad, please make them study everything in great depth detail instead of making self-opinion for knowing less. In my field trips in isolated areas, I once heard the teaching of religion tends to be provoking and discriminating instead of educating. I wonder what department agama and kominfo are doing. How can it be no sensor for provoking teaching? Why so busy with pornography while more important thing is under way di daerah-daerah.
These people, who get information from self-opinion leaders of religion, added a little spice then it becomes ready for battle since they think it’s right.. I believe the government should find a way to communicate (educating) things to the smallest person in isolated area of whatever event happening so that people don’t get the wrong information. People there watch tv, though. It’s worth every penny of it if done right.
to thewriter:
perhaps world war 3 is needed to reconfigure world’s power (just like ww2, and since the US become the only superpower now)
ouch, scary thought. hopefully won’t happen
As long as the US is the world’s sole super power, the world order will always be under its order. You may want to look for the wish master to grant instantly the cessation of conflict between the israeli and the arabs 😛
It is of my firm belief that we all should promote and facilitate the emergence of other super powers. As the saying goes: power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Tetap semangat dan tetap ke sana dan ke sini
H.E. Mr Sudarsono,
In regards of your artcle on current war between Israel and Lebanon (Hezbollah), I read somewhere that your government do not encourage certain group of Indonesian Moslem to go to Lebanon to show their solidarity or strong support.
Do you have a law that prohibits your citizen to join armed forces in other country?
I do not have deep knowledge about Islam and its teaching, doctrine etc. Born, raised and educated (in UI) and worked several years in Indonesia, I have many friends and relatives who are ardent/ devote Moslem, yet they are open minded people who respect others who came from different culture and religious background.
My understanding (from them) about “jihad” is : a continous battle to conquer “demon” in ourselves ( any vice in us as human being).
We all aware that some small group of radical in Indonesia tried to interpret “jihad” and used it as a tool to reach their own goals.
I hope a few “bad apple” will not spoil a whole bushel of good apples.
It is not just a cliche to say that good education of young people in schools (Goverment or Private) and/or common people through mass media (Government or Private group’s sponsored) , are both the key to build a strong nation- whose citizens are selves sufficient, independent in their mind/ thinking, not easily swayed to the left or the right.
As I saw on TV several days ago, Indonesia Military ready go to Lebanon as Peace Keeping Force under UN. And UN already released Resolution (with underpressure from US).
If UN resolution giving advantage to Israel. Do we still send the troops?
It’s funny to read the comment made by sanasini. While the world needs superpowers, Indonesia needs only one superpower figure that could lead it to prosperity.
Indonesia currently has too many superpowers, all of whom sadly have their own hidden agendas.
Indonesia today is too “demon”cratic *sigh*
Dear Sir,
As far as I observe, the conflict and tensions between Israel against Lebanon and Hizbullah is an effect from what happens before, on Israeli’s side is necessary to defend their sovereign and internal security against terrorism beacuse In fact, the military operations which held around the state border was inefective to surpress the Hizbullah. as every nations will do to protect their citizens, the civilians.
The domestic effect in Indonesia just such a funny thing like demonstration and anarchism.Those Indonesian can’t eliminate which one is the governmental and strategical act and which one is religion sentiment. They think that was the war against religion, just like Crussade few centuries before.
That’s a bad habbit in Indonesian Culture and Society.
but of course we couldn’t ignore the casualties in Lebanon, but if we take a look in Israel, that was an equal.
That just my humble opinion, as an ordinary High School student in Denpasar.
Nations have a certain right, but then consider the Imperial Japanese Army and its invasion of China in 1937 in the Marco Polo Bridge Incident … rationale? A soldier went missing near Marco Polo Bridge and the Japanese demanded that they be allowed to search for him on the Chinese side.
Consider World War I, which was started because of the assasination of the archduke. (World War I caused the Russian Revolution and the Treaty of Versailles, the Treaty caused World War II, which in turn caused the Cold War to occur and henceforth.)
I think Israel should at least have acted multilaterally, rather than unilaterally.
The domestic effect on the United States? Gasoline prices have soared. People are feeling the pinch.
Dear Sir,
At this opportunity, I will choose not to comment on the Lebanon’s conflict, but I’d rather to congratulate you on your blog. It is defnitely a soothing feeling to know that the people “above” you would like to share their views and to personally communicate with us. I am very proud to have you “up” there sir.
sincerely,
adit
I thank all responders for their comments on this posting. I will duely write a follow-up article on “diplomacy and military balance” as events develop over the end of August.
Dear Mr.Juwono Sudarsono,
Let us hope and pray that this blog is the genisis of many more .
I look forward to being educated by you on world affairs, in your honest unbiased and articulate manner.You are a ray of sunshine in a dark world.
p.s. would you consider moving to australia and running for prime minister here. We are sadly short of honest intelligent candidates.
your avid fan
rod no_injustice
australia once fair
Dear Sir,
Is it true that Iran has unduly “influenced” RI and other Muslim countries, to send a PKF contingent to southern Lebanon as a means of aiding and abetting Hizbollah?
Pak Juwono,
Do you really support sending a batallion over to Lebanon for peace keeping mission?
I think it is a waste of money knowing that our country is very poor.
Why not spend the money to build schools and hospitals?
Sir Minister
you wrote:
thank all responders for their comments on this posting. I will duely write a follow-up article on “diplomacy and military balance” as events develop over the end of August.
my comment is:
Its already September (maybe your too busy) …but… you wrote a nice article, but it seems that you have not expressed your point of view to the solution and also Indonesia’s role regarding this issue.. we are desperately waiting for your newest post about this..
nyari postingan nya yg pake bahasa indonesia, gakada ya….